Alabama Football: '22 Schedule Strength, SEC Championship and Playoffs Any list of teams in contention for a '22 Playoff slot that does not include Alabama Football and Georgia would be a. 2. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Jerry. Mike: I'm going with Roethlisberger, actually. "Tebow The Letter" is my favorite of this crop, but "Arrelious Borealious" was close. Meanwhile, Ohio State's resources (292.9) are an overkill for the schedule they play. You need to have some reason to throw out games, like doing so correlates with more accurate tiebreakers. Tom: It doesn't matter much how good the division you play in the opposite conference is, because a lot of that information comes out in the wash. For actually deciding who the better team is, it kind of sucks. Tom: Carson Palmer has been making so many mistakes lately I'd be tempted by the Lions. I imagine most of your league forgets that you're even playing IDP. 5. I don't have much respect for Colt McCoy though, and thus would probably go with the Cardinals as an overall better choice. 3, Rivers, 6-5) 126 def. The method of measuring player performance used by Football Outsiders from 2003 through mid-2008, translating a player's value into an estimated total of points instead of yards. Yes, you read that correctly. Division record (again, whatever division) Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. 4, Elias, 6-5) 88 def. No, I have no idea how this tie was resolved. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. I probably don't have any choice but to throw the dice with Jackson anyway, so I guess it's just between Stewart and Moore unless I wanted to get really, really cute and go with Gresham. It sounds like ADP's planning on playing, so play him. The primary takeaway from this chart is how two (or more) teams can have a widely different strength of schedule (based on the Average Power 5 SoS Score), and still have the same number of opponents with lower Team Roster Scores than themselves. If you search the Internet to find out, chances are you'll run across a chart that looks like this: But what kind of useful information does this really provide? AFC N: 13-3 "The strength of schedule tiebreaker has never come into play" is the important point. Mike: On one hand, I'm really not hot on Jackson or Stewart, but then again, I'm not really hot on any of my bench players at this point. The Colts went 4-2 in the AFC South. Founder of Football Outsiders PFF's version of SoS is the ONLY one available on the market that factors in PFF Player Grades into its methodology to improve its predictive value. Mike: At wideout, assuming that Johnson does not play, this is actually a tricky question. At 2 points were Beanie Wells, Donald Brown, Montario Hardesty, and Peyton Hillis. Bills (0-3) Choice #3: My QB for the year has been Cam Newton but I've also got Tim Tebow on the bench. He is from the Netherlands. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Venue: Alamodome San Antonio, TX. The game will be in his hands. Are there an equal number of Power 5 teams with more and lesser resources? *Seahawks (7-9, 6-6) However, Auburn is well-equipped to take on such a difficult schedule with a TRS of 273.2. Strength of schedule . As an example, let's use the 2010 Indianapolis Colts, who went 10-6. I'd go with Welker for sure, then Wallace, then Robinson, then Austin would be my pecking order. For the purposes of this analysis, Power 5 teams will include all current teams playing in the ACC, SEC, Big 12, Big 10, and Pac-12 conferences. Head-to-head if applicable. I think it's kind of hard to forget. The Team Resource Ratio is a way to broadly determine how well a given team is matched up against its opponents. Of course, he only has to score, like, twice, but still, in his hands. 8. 26. Welker and Wallace probably, but I'm torn regarding the Cowboys. There is one common opponent (Pittsburgh), and two of the three beat Pittsburgh, but apparently, ESPN says it would go to strength of victory. One of the reasons is that your record is incorporated into your opponents' record. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Philadelphia Eagles 3. Go NOOOOOOOOORV! Mike: Why are you doing this, though? The athletes in wrestling are restricted to compete against opponents within their own weight class. A ton. I'm in the playoffs for my PPR league, and as usual, I can't make up my mind about anything. Cowboys (Colts 0-1, Packers 1-0); Eagles (Colts 0-1, Packers 1-0); Giants (Colts 1-0, Packers 1-0); Patriots (Colts 0-1, Packers 0-1); Redskins (Colts 1-0, Packers 0-1) Additionally, each data point (school) is color-coded to illustrate how many non-Power 5 teams it plays this season. A Power 5 team will always be assumed to have more resources than a non-Power 5 team. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by bernie (not verified), "I hope you don't mind that I signed your name on the loan paperwork, honey.". 21. 38.84 points. The Strength of Schedule, commonly called SoS, is a team statistic widely used in the USA and, more generally, where there are championships in which the teams' schedules are different regarding the number of matches or for the opponents faced. However, I tried out an extreme version of this scenario, and it doesn't seem to work out like this. Following this, some additional layers of complexity and intrigue can be added to the numbers. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Tom: But we're losing the indirect impact of this, because the strength of schedule measure doesn't reward you for playing a much stronger division in the other league. Mike: It seems reasonable. NFC S: 10-6 MIKE MARTZ AWARD: Beyond MB3, the Bears had great success playing a fairly aggressive man coverage scheme for roughly the first 55 minutes of Sunday's game before switching to a soft deep zone. And I'm currently projected to win my next game by 54. And if you win a division game, that effectively has twice as much impact on your strength of schedule. The Saints @ MIN are also available but I wasn't really considering them. Verdict: while the seeding looks reasonable overall, we still need another tiebreaker. I don't think it actually tells you what it supposedly tells you. A combination of a team's margin of victory and the difference its resources and those of its opponents can lead us to a parameter that could help assign a number to that X factor, making the intangible aspect now a measurable quantity. Plus, teams on your schedule play each other a lot, and you're guaranteed the same effect on your strength of schedule regardless of the result of that game; that cuts down on the possibility for strengths of schedule to change much. 3. To start off, let us define the strength of schedule as simply the "Average Power 5 SoS Score." Vanderbilt is the team that is most heavily mismatched in terms of being too poorly equipped to play its schedule. There is no Big 12 team in the top 30 of that list. 4. We also list strength of schedule based . I wonder if Robinson will continue to put up big numbers if he's not seeing the field. Yes, our seedings are all messed up because Tom screwed up the bye week situation. 8, Tanier, 4-5) 85. Hence this assumption is generally valid. The results of those games all perfectly offset each other. Most of the teams that you would generally expect to make the Top 25 are just so well equipped that they are almost always punching below their weight -- except when they play each other. In fact, it hurts your because they're more likely to win games against your divisional foes. I think that is a powerful message, really: Do not take this game very seriously. Far more insight can be gained by comparing a team's strength of schedule for the upcoming season with the one they played the previous season. Tom: I just think and see Dan Orlovsky throwing for a zillion yards, even if it's late in the game against particularly bad scrubs, and think Tebow will be pretty successful. The Bucs are apparently planning on playing Aqib Talib against Bryant, but I don't think that's close to enough reason not to play him. That's pretty much what I was thinking great minds think alike. Tom: As do several seemingly non-bothersome things, it kind of annoys me. You don't think maybe such a large purchase decision should be made jointly? The 247Sports Composite Rating is a proprietary algorithm that compiles prospect "rankings" and "ratings" listed in the public domain by the major media recruiting services. Sorta? 1 vs. No. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? The top seed won in a landslide, which is always a sigh of relief for a standard seeding system. Sproles as well. So, a funny thing happened in the first round of the FO Staff Playoffs: All the top seeds won. If you tally up SOS for the NFC W and S, by your logic you would expect the NFC W to be punished for playing such a strong division and the NFC S to be rewarded. I'd be wary of Walter. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by bubqr. Common opponents. Do I oversell BAL D if I consider starting Rex Grossman (@NYG) or Mike Vick (vs NYJ) over Philip Rivers (vs BAL)? NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings More Rankings. That's Great Hustle! In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Danish Denver-Fan. So the strength-of-schedule factor may be meeting its match this season. With 28-year-old Austin Aune returning at quarterback, expectations were high for the North Texas offense coming into the season. The higher the Average Power 5 SoS Score, the tougher the schedule is considered to be. Mike: If you ever need to know anything about fantasy football, however, take this message to heart: The fourth seed is my friend Simon. and Ryan Mathews. Mike: Although I'm still somewhat undecided between Gresham and Kellen Winslow for my tight end spot. ", She: "Yes, I did" [smiles] "Recognize it? 22. Auburn had the highest Average Power 5 SoS at 256.3, followed by Vanderbilt (240.0) and then Ohio State (197.3). He religiously supports and follows Juventus FC, the Virginia Tech Hokies, and the Indian National Cricket team. Pairs of teams in the same conference always have at least four common opponents under the current scheduling formula, except for the teams that play head-to-head based on last year's record. Tom: We do start 11 of them. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Head to head Intentional Rounding (No. Matches between a Power 5 team and a non-Power 5 team are not counted towards the Power 5 team's SoS. Does common opponents do the trick here (guess: no)? The question then is Robinson or Felix at flex, and I'm confident enough Felix will get work to go with him. Well, 1 point isn't really that bad a Loser League score for Olindo Mare, but it's still the lowest for the week. My reasoning here is that with the limited season the NFL plays, we want to examine in every case the greatest number of games ("data points") that are comparable: reduce the sample size until we get something meaningful, even if it's actually less precise. In order to do this, we need to identify and quantify the "resources" available to each team. I have approximately zero confidence in any of Chicago's offense right now, so I'd stick with Tolbert this week. 35.00 points, thanks to how many DST touchdowns? Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. The scoring in my league is such that limiting yards and points is what's most valuable (30 point baseline for a shutout with under 200 yards given up going down to -8 for giving up 36+ points and 450+ yards with the usual scoring for DST TD, sacks, safeties, and interceptions). New England's secondary is just so bad, though. Steelers have the 2-seed instead of the Ravens. Mike: Wow, someone actually said they love the column. 18. The eighth seed won, 166.54-160.04. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? For instance, true freshmen rarely make a noticeable impact, with the best players often being redshirted. Editor-in-Chief I have no idea if Andre Johnson will play this week, so I'm guessing I'm pretty much compelled to play Julio Jones. Of course just because a particular team was good (or bad) one year doesn't mean they will be the same the next, and spectacular anomalies have occasionally arisen. *Steelers (12-4, 9-3, 5-1) Double down on your Jones prayers, as with DeMarco Murray's injury I think he's a good play going forward. 20. Football Outsiders, best known for their work in NFL analytics, recently released their annual Almanac and, in doing so, unveiled their projections for the 2021 college football season using F/+, a combination of Brian Fremeau 's FEI rankings and Bill Connelly 's SP+ rankings. Teams are ordered from easiest upcoming schedule to most difficult upcoming schedule. Linebackers Defensive Backs The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following: Fantasy Points Driven Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points. The principal error sources here will be (in no particular order) At 1 point were Andre Caldwell, Harry Douglas, and Seattle Mike Williams. However, the Longhorns play two more Power 5 opponents than the Bulldogs, and that definitely should count for something. To calculate the number of games a team plays an opponent of lesser resources than itself, let us make the following simple assumptions: 1. Well, the last four teams that took the sharpest drop in strength of schedule in the entire league for that year improved their records by a combined 17 games the following season; and even more significantly, three of them made the playoffs "the year after" when they had not done so "the year before": This table uses number of opponents' victories instead of opponents' winning percentage because, thanks to Houston, the latter was impossible to quantify for 2002. There are many dimensions we must examine to fully understand and interpret a team's strength of schedule in terms of each team's own resources and those of its opponents. I don't trust Saints players beyond Graham when healthy and Sproles, so I'd look to avoid Thomas and if Starks is healthy would go with Driver. Note that this does not include BYU, which faces seven non-Power 5 teams. Mike: I had commanded the top spot in the league for most of the year. If you are interested in writing a guest column, something that takes a new angle on the NFL, please email us your idea at Contact Us. Here are the teams with the five easiest schedules from Week. Conference record. For this article, we've gone through and analyzed each team's schedule both in the games so far (Weeks 1-8) and in the games to come (Weeks 9-17) based on Football Outsiders DVOA ratings . Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Guest Column: Strength of Schedule -- A Dynamic Analysis, Support Football Outsiders' independent media. For instance, Mississippi State and Arkansas both have approximately the same TRS and Average Power 5 SoS Score, but since Arkansas plays four non-Power 5 teams vs. three for Mississippi State, it can be construed that Mississippi State has a tougher schedule than Arkansas. And if you win a division game, that effectively has twice as much impact on your strength of schedule. 2 and 3 present difficulties with the NFL's current schedule, in that it's possible that two teams could go a season without managing more than one game that fits into either category: e.g. Matt Moore practiced today; he's up-and-down, and Marshall had a stinko game in the previous Bills matchup, but he's been valuable in the other games. A Football Outsiders stat which compares the performance of each player, in terms of DVOA, to a replacement-level . But that's over Davone Bess, whose name appears elsewhere in this weeks column. And the extra one-game playoff is part of the regular season. According to ESPN's Football Outsiders, the Philadelphia Eagles have the most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL. Look at Schaub's attempt counts against teams like Cleveland and Tampa, and then factor in that Carolina has a worse run defense than either, and Yates is not Schaub. Conference championship games are not counted here. ", In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Jeff Fogle. Schedule Strength in College Football Photo: USA Today Sports Images Guest column by Akshay Ramprakash In college football, strength of schedule (SoS) has generally referred to the cumulative/average/weighted strength of all the relevant opponents of a team during a given football season. "Is that how the NFL calculates SOS? And all because Norv at least permitted Weddle's boldness. Net drive efficiency (NDE) is the sum of offensive drive efficiency and defensive drive efficiency data representing scoring value earned by offense and defense units per drive. Any combination is open, I guess. This is a deep league; we have two WR, two RB, W/T and R/W, plus eight bench spots. The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings - Football Outsiders It's Trading Places Week at the top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, with a number of teams swapping spots while the team . Strength of victory is the tiebreaker before strength of schedule, and on the somewhat uncommon occasions in which strength of victory has come into play, there have never been identical winning percentages for the two (or more) sets of teams defeated by the tied teams. The 49ers have by far the toughest remaining schedule based on DVOA at 12%, which is 4.9% higher than any other team. I see that net points are also at the bottom of the list. So I didn't really accomplish anything here except to demonstrate that when is something like SOS actually needed? Mike: Not quite, but nearly so Tony Romo. Mike: I'm not sure there is a universe in which you play Flacco over Rivers, especially with that weird scoring and in a game where Baltimore is going to be running with wild abandon. The strength of an opponent is determined by their ranking in our Composite College Football Power Rankings. 23. But first, a few specific rules and assumptions need to be established: 1. Mike: But surely that's not an issue, since you are comparing two teams with the same record -- opponents' records are affected equally. I'm praying desperately I get Felix Jones off of waivers for my flex, but if I don't, which of those? I finished seventh in points, so I didn't end up with an undeserved fate. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Support Football Outsiders' independent media. . And this is also why teams like Vanderbilt and Ohio State stand out -- Vanderbilt is very poorly equipped in an otherwise high-resource conference, while Ohio State is extremely well-equipped in a conference whose schools generally have much lower resources. Ohio State and Wisconsin have two of the easiest schedules among all Power 5 conference teams. Strategy may change, but the rules don't. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? ?31. Will didn't have a lot of firepower from any one player, but a great overall effort moved him on to the semis. SEC teams are generally better equipped for their schedules, while Big 10 and Big 12 teams are not that well equipped. Take the case of Texas and Georgia. All I know is that the Jinxes won, so yay for Elias? You're forgetting the Andy factor - given that the opposing D is weaker against the run than the pass, Andy will almost always opt for a 5-1 pass/run ratio. They believe this song wins that honor. Total VOA Schedule Pythagorean Wins With Stewart, I'm basically hoping for vulture touchdowns, and as you said, Cincinatti's rushing defense is pretty good; 14th in the league by DVOA. 25. As you note, though, it matters a lot for draft purposes. So you'd go with L. Robinson over Austin? Louisiana: 58-89, (39.5%). Isn't it the only tiebreaker used in draft order (for non-playoff teams with the same record)? 2. Or are there a small number of high resource teams and a relatively larger number of teams with moderately lesser resources? It tells us that a potentially nine-win Wisconsin team has nowhere near the same Strength of Schedule as a potentially nine-win Auburn team (with Baylor and Stanford falling somewhere between them). The full list of SoS based on the Average TRS of all Power 5 opponents is listed in the table below. Note that this does not differentiate between number of non-Power 5 teams played. 1. COLBERT AWARD: Can your Scramble writers really say something positive about Norv Turner? There are always intangible aspects involved in any team's performance over the course of a season -- coaching, player selection, fitness levels, play calling, among many others. WIDE RECEIVER: Tom is grateful he's in a PPR league, as he earned more than Davone Bess's -1 Loser League score. And to visualize this even better, below is the chart that ties everything together. In fact, since about Week 3. *Colts (10-6, 8-4, 4-2) AND *Packers (10-6, 8-4, 4-2) <-- no head-to-head game How does one go about determining how "tough" or "easy" an NFL team's schedule is? So what if a team is going to play weak opponents in the coming year; if they also played a cream-puff schedule last year, how will it help them improve? consider the Cardinals and Giants hypothetically having the same record in a year the NFC West plays the NFC South. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule, Support Football Outsiders' independent media. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? In a full extra quarter who receives the kickoff? In particular, the top teams in the country will only have one or two games that determine their season. Another thing to note is the number of Power 5 opponents a team plays. 5, Rob, 6-5) 88. Tom: I think it helps capture more of the true differentiation in strength of schedule. Gates is the better player, but again the opponent has me second guessing myself. Apparently "giving up" trumps "ridiculously injured". Jets (3-1) NFL Week 13 - Last week, we were scrambling around trying to find a game to highlight -- a paltry schedule, drained by Thanksgiving, leaving us with some congealed leftovers in terms of matchups.But Week 13 in the NFL? The chart below shows the Average Power 5 SoS Score for each team plotted against the team's own TRS. nick thunderdome: OK, I've got one for you guys. If Starks is indeed out, I'd go with Grant as well. Denver's defense won't be able to stop New England's offense, and Bill Belichick isn't going to be stupid enough to shut down his defense (or tell Tom Brady and Wes Welker to cool their jets) when they have a lead. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, ESPN: Ranking Remaining Schedule Strength, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . And the biggest resource on any team's roster is, well, the roster. It looked like the game was starting to slip away from the Chargers, as a dominating first half and 16-0 lead had become a tight 16-10 game, but Eric Weddle audibled to a fake punt, the Chargers converted, took the ball down the field for a score, then picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick nine seconds later for a 30-10 lead. They all play the same number of opponents that have lower TRS than themselves (nine). It was simply a function of the NFL's annual . How to use Strength of Schedule. That's when fantasy football strength of schedule can help. I'm not a huge fan of any of Colston, Holmes, or Thomas. In fact, it more than doubles, from 62 percentage points (or 16 games) to 153 percentage points (or 40 games). 4. I meant the instrumental Roger Miller tribute! That being said, there is bound to be attrition in the senior class, with the best players leaving to the NFL early. 3. Then you throw the draft in the middle of this, and the Titans also have the same record and the AFC South played the NFC West, so the Giants now have one common opponent with the Texans, while the Cards acquired 6 common opponents. What is also true is that it is not the only "resource" that matters. DVOA-Based Fantasy Strength of Schedule October 20, 2011, 8:01 pm ET 22 In Thursday's fantasy matchups column for ESPN Insider, I discussed the easiest and toughest remaining schedules in the NFL from a fantasy perspective. Tom: It bothers me, as a matter of principle, that playing a strong division in the other conference punishes you doubly: you're less likely to win, and it's likely to hurt your strength of schedule. . ESPN's playoff machine tells me that it will if the Texans, Pats and Ravens all win out, because each would have a 10-2 conference record. Of course, strength of schedule does matter for draft order, and I've been closely following the strength-of-schedule possibilities for the Colts, Rams, and Vikings. Let the NFC West and the NFC South play those two divisions, as they currently do. Win percentage based on 2021 records of then-Division I-classified opponents (FBS and FCS) 1. Conference record (never mind which conference) North Texas Mean Green (7-5, 6-2 CUSA) vs. UTSA Roadrunners (10-2, 8-0 CUSA) Date: Friday, December 2, 2022. Lovie Smith and/or Rod Marinelli, why? Mike: I just don't see what, exactly, that gets you compared to the current system. - coaching and development. However, unlike wrestling, the resources that any team can procure in college football are not completely in their control. But for this article, we will be considering a team's student-athlete resources as they were initially quantified, and not how they are transformed (good or bad) through the school's coaching system. Overall record Mike, what do you make of the NFL's use of strength of schedule? A challenge in figuring out the best system is that there is no target variable to model off. A team's roster at any point consists of student-athletes from the previous five recruiting classes. San Francisco has a good pass defense. This isn't an element to start making draft decisions based on, but it's useful when you need to break a tie between similar options. And an assist from Shonn Greene, with 26.70. With the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals set, we bring you one key factor and one player to know ahead of the matchups, plus predictions. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Dr. NFL Tiebre (not verified). With most of the games in any team's schedule played against teams from the same conference, the above table indicates that there is significant variation in the distribution of resources within each conference. Miami went 8-4, New England went 7-5. Games against Houston count as zero opponent victories in the upcoming year's strength of schedule for the 2002 Colts. The Strength of Schedule tool ranks how difficult a team's upcoming matchups are for players at each position. Tom: Gresham in my book is indeed too cute by half. Instead this should be interpreted -- in hindsight -- as a way to determine which games can be treated as upsets, which teams are overperforming, and which teams are underperforming. My flex is a disaster though. 3. But this "error" will not be restricted to any specific school/conference/state, and will instead be spread out across all schools and conferences.). This new parameter takes each team's Resource Ratio and subtracts the hypothetical average of 1.00. Brazil may not have savoured World Cup glory since 2002, but they are five-time winners and currently boast the strength in depth - with the likes of Neymar, Vinicius Junior and Alisson at their disposal - to make them 4/1 (5.00) favourites in Qatar. The broad approach would be to calculate the cumulative or average TRS of all of a team's opponents, with a higher score indicating a more resourceful pool of opponents, and thereby a tougher schedule. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Dr. December t (not verified), He: "What is that new ringtone? Coaching, facilities, institute budget, etc., all influence the final performances. PPR league, 1 point per reception, all other scoring standard. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. There's also a (pretty crazy) IDP league I play in that has the following scoring for QBs: -.5 per incompletion, .5 per completion, 6 pts TDs (passing or rushing), 1 pt/20 yards, bonus points at 300/400 yards, 1 pt bonus for 40 yard completions and TDs, -.5 fumbles and an extra -2 if the fumble is lost. Tom: Well, it matters for wild card purposes. Rams (7-9, 5-7, 3-3) 2 play for the title, followed by the playoff guaranteeing more top-end matchups. Any tweaks I'd want to see would be too complicated for most people to like. Mike: I'm staring at my roster, and due to injuries to other players, I am seeing Steven Jackson and Jonathan Stewart. Year Rank W-L Weighted DVOA Offense DVOA Defense DVOA Special Teams DVOA Estimated Wins Unadj. FPI represents how many points . ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Browns (Jets 1-0, Saints 0-1); Ravens (Jets 0-1, Saints 0-1); Steelers (Jets 1-0, Saints 1-0) Vikings (Jets 1-0, Saints 1-0) The Average Power 5 SoS Score is one such perspective. Mike: It's true. Plus, when you compare the Colts and the Vikings, you can throw out the NFC South (each NFC South team has both the Colts and the Vikings on their schedule); when you compare the Colts and the Rams, you can throw out the AFC North (similarly). In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by dmstorm22. Sure, he'll drop a touchdown, but he has a decent chance of also catching one. Sadly, the third-place team put up more points than I expected, so I fell just short of the points crown. At RB, even after last week's dud by CJ, I'd still start him against the Colts. 2. They also ranked seventh on offense and fifth on special teams for the regular season. Football Outsiders is a website started in July 2003 which focuses on advanced statistical analysis of the NFL. Which brings me to the final point of this post: the X factor. 49ers (6-10, 4-8, 4-2) But at some point, any system is results-based, and is blind to the fact that Chicago is suddenly starting Hanie, or the Eagles defense shouldn't have been allowed on the field this year. Oakland has a bad but non-laughable offense, and Buffalo is definitely dangerous. The following chart should help illustrate the number of non-Power 5 teams that each Power 5 team faces. Here's why: The Cowboys are a 9-7 team with a SOS of .500, meaning their 2017 opponents combined for a 128-128 record in. As in most leagues, rushing yards count. Thomas has a good matchup, but I don't trust him to get volume. As we move down the table (and to the right in the chart) from Vanderbilt, the degree of mismatch reduces as we approach Virginia Tech and Baylor, who each have a Resource Ratio of about 1.00 (indicating a well-matched schedule of opponents). I was just curious to compare last year's strength of schedule (SoS) to this year's SoS, via Football Outsiders (FBO). They are both favored in terms of their resources 11 times this season. In the modern incarnation of playoff tiebreakers, the strength of schedule tiebreaker has never come into play. Buccaneers (10-6, 8-4, 3-3) AND Giants (10-6, 8-4, 3-3) <-- nhthg In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by jmoh (not verified). Newton is averaging in the mid-20s. I've even considered starting both Freeman and Yates and benching Rivers vs. the Baltimore D, but that's crazy, right? Time: 7:30 PM EST. 1. Mike: I had the largest margin of victory in the league, 154.58-94.60. ", Also a far more honest reaction would be, "Really, honey, a car? Elite running game - Jamaal Charles turned out to be an absolute stud (like. But this can only be calculated at the end of the season and in hindsight. Using this information, we will be able to quantify the quality of the players in each team for the 2018 college football season. But some people, for some strange reason, think that fantasy football success is a perfectly repeatable skill. I've byed into the semis of my league basically on the strength of Arian Foster, Cam Newton, the 49ers DST, and carefully watching the waiver wire. Generally speaking, the top right quadrant consists of teams that have some of the highest Avg Power 5 SoS Scores AND who are sufficiently equipped themselves to play that tough schedule or in other words, most of the SEC. ErCincy is 10th in RB fantasy points allowed and held Arian Foster to his 2nd worst game of the year last week. The Buccaneers, also at 9-3, have one of the easiest . I've got the 49ers on roster but don't love the match up they've got with the Steelers. Tom: I don't have that much confidence in the Raiders' offensive line, which has not been playing well of late. The 2014 NFL regular-season schedule has been released and already we are hearing phrases like "the easiest schedule in the league" thrown about with regard to a team like the Indianapolis Colts. Mike: My bench is Lance Moore, Mario Manningham, Jermaine Gresham, Robert Meachem and James Jones. Instead, we're adding insult to injury for Matt Moore, who more than negated his touchdown with two fumbles and an interception for 2 points. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. This includes all games and is not limited to conference schedules. If there was just a widespread acknowledgment of the limits as to the actual information in a team's strength of schedule calculation, I'd be fine with that. *Bears (11-5, 8-4) 6, Aaron, 5-6) 108. This is reflected in the slight reduction in the weights assigned for the senior class. New York Giants 2. You're able to compare how one team did compared to its division mates. However, apparently both Chicago RBs are available on waivers. Strength of schedule ratings represent the expected number of losses an elite team two standard deviations better than average would have against each team's schedule to date (ELS), the expected . A Power 5 school is always expected to beat a non-Power 5 opponent. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by PatsFan. Vikings (6-10, 5-7, 1-5) The Rams are fourth in DVOA at 25.5%, behind only the Ravens, Bucs and . Chicago Bears 5. With the quantification of the teams resources, we know that these two teams are definitely underperforming and that there is a clear gap in the utilization of their resources. Cal Poly (Big Sky) - .627 (84-50), all 11 opponents were D-I in 2021. Notable: In the Big Sky, only the Mustangs and Weber State will face all of the conference's five 2021 FCS playoff qualifiers . I guess things like net points, and strength of schedule (however you calculate that). The bottom right quadrant consists of teams that play a tough schedule but are not sufficiently equipped themselves or in other words, the rest of the SEC. More complex systems are needed as the number of games drop or the number of teams increases. Take the cases of Auburn, Vanderbilt, and Ohio State. Jets QB Josh McCown had an outstanding game on Sunday, as demonstrated by the advanced stats at Football Outsiders. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Tom Gower. It gives us a broad picture of the resources of a team's opponents over the course of a season. 4. The total SoS of a Power 5 team will be the sum of the TRS scores of all the Power 5 opponents it faces. Save 10% & Support Aaron Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . This prevents obvious mismatches (such as a 200-pound athlete going up against a 110-pound athlete). If I'm going to win this week it isn't going to be any different. An obscure element can't "figure heavily. I know many sites' SOS will throw out the team's games themselves when looking at opponents' record. The exact weights for each of the previous five recruiting classes are given in the table below: The above weights reflect the generally expected relative contributions of a recruiting class based on their experience and availability. Adams will run about 68% of his routes against Jalen Ramsey (70% catch rate, 126.1 passer . This would be the crux of our new approach. Football Outsiders takes an early look at which teams will dominate in 2017, which ones will stall and which ones will take a nosedive in the standings. Tom: I would rank Decker over Manningham myself. That's a far cry from where we were before the Bowl Championship Series, which was designed to have No. He joined because we needed an eighth, had Yahoo! *Eagles (10-6, 7-5) "When you absolutely don't know what to do any more, then it's time to panic."